Friday, Saturday and Sunday’s forecast calls for continued warm daytime temperatures across Southern Ontario. Temperatures will peak at the mid to high single digits. The current forecasted rainfall amount ranges from 10-20 mm over the weekend with an additional 5-10 mm of rain possible from convective precipitation (thunderstorm) overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. On Sunday sustained winds up to 65 km/h from the west-southwest are forecasted with gusts exceeding 100km/h.
Several ice jams remained grounded along the Credit River at the Ferndale Park, Barber (Paper) Mill Dam and Meadowvale Park. Approximately 1.5 km of ice is backed up at the Barber Mill Dam in Glen Williams. New river ice has formed at some locations since the previous ice break up event.
The forecasted maximum 30mm of rain along with melting of the existing snow pack would be sufficient to break up the newly formed river ice, mobilize the grounded ice jams and potentially overtop the Barber Mill Dam sending ice downstream.
Furthermore, the ice will lose its strength as the temperatures increase. Under the proper loading and temperature conditions, it is possible for the existing grounded ice jam to shift or collapse under its own weight. Once any type of movement initiates, the grounded ice jam may no longer be stable. This is especially true if the movement occurs near the front (downstream or toe end) of the jam where a few critical pieces of ice could be holding back the entire ice jam.
All watercourses in our area will experience higher than normal water levels. An ice jam breaking lose will create extremely hazardous conditions. As a result, local streams and rivers will become dangerous, especially in the vicinity of culverts, bridges and dams. Children should be warned to stay away from all watercourses. Furthermore, residents should heed to the warnings of first responders.
High winds on Sunday could create hazardous conditions along the shoreline. The forecasted west to southwest winds may result in higher lake levels, erosion of shorelines and trails along the shoreline could be impacted.
CVC will continue to closely monitor weather and water levels in the watershed. The Flood Outlook Statement will be in effect through Tue-Feb-26-2019 or until further notice.
For more information on this Flood Outlook Statement, contact the CVC during office hours at 905-670-1615. To report a flood afterhours, please call 1-800-215-8505. Media inquiries should be directed to Maureen Pogue, 905-670-1615, ext. 242 or 647-271-5643.
Call 911 if you require assistance from Emergency Services.